March 2026 Economic Update: The Markets Shifts on AI Expectations | Crestwood Advisors (Concept)

February delivered rotation, drama, and a useful reminder that not all markets move in the same direction at once.

The AI Trade Gets More Complicated
Nvidia posted a genuine blowout fourth quarter, with revenue up 73% year over year and data center demand still accelerating, yet shares fell more than 5% the day earnings were released.¹ The Magnificent 7 is now down roughly 7% year to date.² It was a clean illustration of where the AI trade stands heading into 2026: fundamentals remain strong, but the market has moved from pricing in potential to demanding proof.

• Disruption anxiety: Mentions of AI disruption on S&P 500 earnings calls nearly doubled from the prior quarter.³ That is encouraging if your company is building the infrastructure. It is considerably less so if your business model might be disrupted by AI. In the market’s crosshairs are software stocks, which have been hit hard over concerns that AI will be easily able to create competing solutions. The stock prices of private credit firms that lend to these software companies likewise pulled back on similar worries.
• The Counterpoint: Fundamental earnings for most software stocks have remained stable. Many firms have reiterated guidance and some companies like Salesforce announced a massive share buyback, indicating that investors may be overestimating the depth and breadth of AI disruption. So too with private credit funds, where the loan books of higher quality lenders appear healthy.
• Belief in future success of AI remains high: Open AI raised $110 billion in their most recent round of funding, bringing the estimated valuation to $840 billion.⁴ This reflects private capital’s seemingly insatiable appetite for AI models. For perspective, at an $840 billion market capitalization, OpenAI would be the 12^th largest company in the S&P 500. OpenAI’s revenue is growing quickly, but the path from revenue to durable, defensible profit remains years away.

Implications for Investors: The AI trade is just starting to evolve. The era of rewarding any company with “AI” in its investor deck is giving way to one that demands evidence of monetization, defensible competitive position, and a credible path to returns on capital. Infrastructure providers with genuine pricing power remain attractive. Owning broad, diversified exposure rather than concentrated bets on any single theme, whether hardware, model providers, or AI-adjacent software, remains the prudent strategy. The winners of the next phase may look quite different from the leaders of the last one.

Tariffs, the Supreme Court, and a Messy Macro Backdrop

February produced the most dramatic tariff development since early 2025 when the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that the president exceeded the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) authority used to impose broad reciprocal tariffs. Those tariffs had pushed the average effective U.S. tariff rate to roughly 16% at their peak, the highest level since the 1930s. The court struck down President Trump’s use of tariffs under IEEPA.

• The legal response and new tariff authority: President Trump responded by invoking Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, a narrower authority that permits tariffs of up to 15% for up to 150 days to address balance-of-payments deficits. A 10% global tariff took effect February 24; the following day the president announced his intention to raise the rate to 15%. Previously negotiated bilateral framework agreements with major trading partners remain in place, for now.
• Tariff Layer Cake: The IEEPA tariffs were the largest single layer, but not the only one. Other tariffs remain intact: 50% on steel and aluminum, 25% on imported automobiles, and 10% on lumber. The U.S.-China truce also remains in effect. The average effective tariff rate fell from roughly 16% at its peak to an estimated 13.7% following the ruling and the Section 122 replacement.^{7, 8}
• GDP and the macro backdrop: Fourth quarter growth came in at 1.4%, well below the 2.8% consensus, partly due to the 43-day government shutdown, which likely reduced GDP by 1-2% according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). Consumer spending and business investment were both positive underneath the headline, suggesting underlying momentum remains intact.^{5, 6}
• Inflation and the Fed: January PPI rose 0.5% for the month versus a 0.3% forecast. Core PPI gained 0.8%, more than double expectations. That combination may encourage the Federal Reserve to remain cautious about cutting rates. The next FOMC meeting is March 17 to 18, with updated economic projections to follow. Rate cuts remain possible in 2026, but a re-acceleration in wholesale prices as well as inflationary pressures coming from the new conflict in Iran makes this less certain.^{7, 8}

Implications for Investors: The tariff story has a new chapter but is far from over. The Section 122 tariff expires around mid-July 2026 absent congressional action, creating a near-term policy cliff. New tariff authority is being pursued through additional legal vehicles while companies like Costco who were heavily impacted by the tariffs will seek reimbursement. For investors, diversified geographic exposure remains the sensible hedge. The combination of tariff uncertainty, the evolving situation in Iran and sticky inflation may limit the Fed’s ability to respond if growth weakens.

Trends Worth Noting

• Buybacks hit a record: Corporate America authorized $233 billion in February repurchases, the largest February on record. Salesforce, Walmart, and Verizon led.⁹ Companies buying their own stock at this scale represents sustained, informed demand for equities.
• Small caps outperformed: The Russell 2000 is up roughly 6% year to date while the S&P 500 is essentially flat.¹⁰ Smaller companies draw more revenue domestically and stand to benefit most from any eventual Fed rate cuts.
• International markets led: Developed markets outside the U.S. gained roughly 10% year to date, with the MSCI EAFE logging 14 consecutive weekly gains late in the month.¹¹ Emerging markets added 14%.¹² European earnings momentum and a slight dollar decline both helped.

The Takeaway
Earnings season confirmed healthy fundamentals: roughly 14% year-over-year earnings growth, the fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit expansion.¹³ The underlying economy is slowing from its recent pace but still growing. The rotation toward smaller companies and international stocks validates the case for diversification we have been making for months. Patience and discipline remain the appropriate posture.

RETURN OF MARKET INDICES
Global equity markets (MSCI ACWI) were positive for the month (+1.3%) led by non-U.S. Equities. U.S. large caps were down slightly in February (S&P 500 -0.8%) while U.S. small caps (Russell 2000) were the reverse mirror image, rising by 0.8%. International developed (MSCI EAFE) and emerging market equities (MSCI Emerging Markets Index) were the standouts rising by 4.7% and 5.5%, respectively. Bonds provided quiet ballast as yields drifted lower on slowing growth data, with prices rising 1.6% for the month.

Source: Bloomberg. EAFE is MSCI EAFE Index⁽¹⁾, Emerging Markets is MSCI Emerging Markets⁽²⁾ and U.S. Bonds is Barclays U.S. Aggregate⁽³⁾. ACWI is the MSCI ACWI Index⁽⁴⁾. Small Caps is the Russell 2000 Index⁽⁵⁾. S&P 500 is the S&P 500 Index⁽⁶⁾. The above information is as of 2/28/2026.

Sources

¹ Bloomberg Equity Markets; Nvidia Q4 FY2026 earnings release, February 26, 2026.

² Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Index, year-to-date return as of February 27, 2026.

³ Bloomberg transcript analysis of S&P 500 Q4 2025 earnings calls, February 2026.

⁴ Bloomberg News, OpenAI Series G financing, February 2026.

⁵ U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Advance Estimate of Q4 2025 GDP, released February 20, 2026.

⁶ U.S. Congressional Budget Office, estimate of partial government shutdown impact on Q4 2025 GDP growth, February 2026.

⁷ U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Producer Price Index news release for January 2026, released February 27, 2026.

⁸ Federal Reserve, FOMC meeting calendar. The March 17 to 18, 2026 meeting will include a Summary of Economic Projections (federalreserve.gov).

⁹ Birinyi Associates, U.S. corporate buyback authorization data, February 2026, as reported by Bloomberg. $233.3 billion authorized in February, the largest February on record. Individual company figures from company investor relations announcements: Salesforce $50 billion (February 25, 2026); Walmart $30 billion; Verizon $25 billion.

¹⁰ Russell 2000 Index and S&P 500 Index, year-to-date total returns as of February 27, 2026. FTSE Russell; S&P Dow Jones Indices.

¹¹ MSCI EAFE Index, year-to-date net total return as of February 27, 2026. MSCI Inc.

¹² MSCI Emerging Markets Index, year-to-date net total return as of February 27, 2026. MSCI Inc.

¹³ FactSet Earnings Insight, S&P 500 Q4 2025 earnings season, week of February 27, 2026 (factset.com). Blended earnings growth rate of 14.2% with 96% of S&P 500 companies reporting; fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth.